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The bond market explained: price against yield, duration and spreads

Bond arithmetic is unusually unforgiving and unusually clear. Price and yield are two ways of stating the same thing, duration is the sensitivity between them, and the spread over a government bond is the price of credit. None of it is a forecast.

Cash flows
fixed at issue
Price and yield
inverse
Duration unit
years
The deckled edge of a heavy engraved bearer certificate with a wax seal, the seal blank and unstamped
A bond is a fixed schedule of payments. Everything else about it is the price someone will pay for that schedule.

Why price and yield move in opposite directions

A pair of brass coupon shears lying across a sheet of perforated blank coupons
The coupons are fixed at issue and never change. Everything the market does, it does to the price paid for them.

A conventional bond promises fixed payments on fixed dates. Those payments do not change, so the only way the market can reprice the security is by changing what someone pays for that fixed stream. Pay less for the same coupons and the return you earn is higher; pay more and it is lower.

That is the whole of the inverse relationship, and it is arithmetic rather than sentiment. When yields rise, existing bonds fall in price because their fixed coupons are now less attractive than newly issued ones. Nothing about the issuer needs to have changed for that to happen.

Duration is sensitivity, measured in years

Duration is the weighted average time until a bond's cash flows arrive, and it doubles as the sensitivity of price to yield: a bond with a duration of seven falls roughly seven percent if yields rise one percentage point. It is an approximation that holds well for small moves and degrades for large ones, which is what convexity corrects.

The practical consequence is that two bonds from the same issuer can behave completely differently. A two-year and a thirty-year bond carry identical credit risk and radically different interest-rate risk, and confusing the two is the most common error in describing what a bond "does".

Where the confusion usually starts"Safe" applied to a bond usually means low credit risk: the issuer will pay. It says nothing about price stability. A thirty-year government bond has almost no credit risk and can lose a large fraction of its value if yields rise, which is not a contradiction but two separate risks with one adjective.

What a credit spread compensates for

A corporate bond yields more than a government bond of the same maturity, and the difference is the spread. It compensates for the possibility of default, for the expected loss if default happens, and for the liquidity of the instrument. When spreads widen, the market is charging more for those risks; when they narrow, less.

Spreads are the most watched signal in credit precisely because they move before accounting does. A widening spread is the market repricing the same fixed schedule of payments, and it happens on information rather than on filings.

Why an equity reader should care

Government bond yields are the discount rate against which every other asset is implicitly judged. When that rate rises, the present value of distant cash flows falls, which affects long-duration equities more than short-duration ones: the same duration arithmetic, applied to a business rather than a coupon.

It also sets the cost of borrowing for the companies being screened. A business with floating-rate debt or a near-term maturity is directly exposed to where this market prices, which is exactly the link between reading a debt schedule and reading a yield curve. That connection is mechanical, and it is the reason this page sits in a screening section.

FAQ

Questions this page raises

Why do bond prices fall when rates rise?

Because the payments are fixed. If newly issued bonds pay more, the only way an existing bond can offer a competitive return is for its price to fall until the fixed coupons represent an equivalent yield. It is a repricing of the same cash flows, not a change in them.

What does a duration of seven mean?

Approximately that the price falls seven percent for a one percentage point rise in yields, and rises about as much for the equivalent fall. It is also the weighted average time to receiving the cash flows, and those two readings are the same number for a good reason.

Is a higher yield better?

A higher yield is compensation for something: longer maturity, weaker credit, worse liquidity. It is a price, not a bonus. The question is always what is being compensated, and the spread over a comparable government bond is where to look.

What is the yield curve telling me?

The yields available at different maturities at one moment. Its shape aggregates expectations and risk premia, and reading a single message out of it is contested even among specialists. As a mechanical matter it tells you the cost of borrowing at each maturity today, which is enough to be useful.